2017 Macro Insights & Dynamics For Boomers/ Millennials & Real Estate
Ready To Pivot? As a long time marketing/insight guru focused on driving growth/value, I am sharing what i call Patrick 5’s Snapshot. In this case it is one is around macro factors and real estate (I am now part of “uber-luxe” Sotheby’s International Realty).1. Lifestyle Pivoting: Boomers and their offspring millennials have been transitioning into new lifestyles. The seniors are shifting from the empty nest “McMansions" and other homes and investing for their next play (for pre/retirement). The "Millenns" are embracing marriage and starting family planning including new residence formats. You see a lot of home inventory in the northeast and midwest (buyer’s market). South Florida is up-ticking, along with parts of the gulf coast (i.e.. Naples), and the Georgia/Carolinas coastal areas, as examples. Select in-city and smart suburban rentals/home purchase options are also up as echo-boom demands increases.
2. Accelerants To The Pivot: As the Dow approaches 21,000, you can feel inclination to shift increasing (2016 Dow finished up 13.5% and gained 8 pts of it in the last 40 days of the year; Forbes 1/14/2014). Overall sentiment is cautiously up (despite politics). Add tax cuts and increased jobs at even a modest level and this lifestyle movement will accelerate.
3. Money Flow Urgency: 75% of homes are purchased with mortgages and the Fed has raised its linked cap rate (.25 basis pos mid-Dec. 2016)…pushing home financing rates up. Boomer parents liquidity through home sale will assist all family members in shifting their lifestyles in 2017 and 2018, thru locked in rate searches, down payment assistance and co-signing.
4. The Uber-Luxe Pivot: Water front/water view homes in South Florida are showing increased demand with an added element…no income tax in the Sunshine State. I am amazed by the amount of conversation and resulting action by the higher/high income families about shifting primary residences to South Florida to leave New York/Connecticut/NJ and Northeast aggressive income and real estate tax rates (including the excessive “mansion tax). Then add Manhattan and high end home prices in the A+ areas and you see the basis for the shift at the high end. For example, "Patrick, I can buy multiple, spectacular waterfront estates in South Florida for the price of a manhattan coop, plus I get no income tax in the Sunshine State!”
As the pivot occurs, there is one resulted added incentive entering 2017: Per the WSJ today, "As some parts of the luxury housing market softens, home sellers across the nation are offering discounts on upscale dwellings”.
5. Implication: Be smart, do a periodic pulse check on you and your family's position. I suggest (& assist) friends do a pin drop, snap shot look at their current home/community. MLS lets you do this and see the supply/demand/value in your area (the Polygon or iPad finger draw tools also bring it all up quickly). Then take a look at your pivot direction (Fl, Carolinas, AZ, CO, etc.) now or for a year of two down the line. It becomes a simple equation!
Sources: Pulsenomics 2/27/2017; Forbes 1/17/2017; WSJ 2/28/2017